The third leadership debate, earlier this evening, was supposed to be about the economy, yet none of the candidates seemed willing to explain what really does lay in store for us, once the electoral dust has settled and the ballot papers have all gone off for recycling.
The necessary and substantial reduction in public expenditure, which will come sooner with the Conservatives or a bit later and much longer under the Liberals and Labour, will inevitably mean significant public sector job cuts. The problem seems to be that, as people will not vote for politicians who threaten their jobs, all the Parties are being somewhat coy on the detail of achieving a balanced budget. Of course, ignoring the “elephant in the room” will not stop it doing a “Blue Peter” on your sofa.
When I served on the North Yorkshire Police Authority, the budget debates would often centre on efficiency gains, through better use of technology and more efficient ways of purchasing uniforms and cars. However, with over 80 per cent of the force budget being spent on the people it employs, no meaningful budget reduction could ever be made without cuting the overall number of staff and/or police officers.
As a rule of thumb, for every million pounds that is cut from the North Yorkshire Police budget around thirty job losses would result. I believe the same equation would probably work for most public services, which means that for each hundred million we cut from public spending, three thousand jobs would go.
Whoever wins this election may find it a pyrrhic victory, as things are certainly going to get much worse before they get any better.
Irvin Berlin sums it up for me...
Before they ask us to pay the bill
And while we still
Have the chance
Let's face the music and dance
